Joplin, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

597
FXUS63 KSGF 022212
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
Issued by National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
412 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026


.KEY MESSAGES...

- Up to 30% chance for flurries across the eastern Ozarks on
Tuesday. Low confidence in patchy light freezing drizzle mixing in.

- After briefly cooler temperatures mid-week, temperatures warm
to above average for late week into the weekend with dry weather.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 316 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Here on Monday afternoon, we are seeing temperatures in the mid 40s
to the low 50s with mostly clear skies and light southerly flow,
helping to melt the ice and snow weve had sticking around for over
a week now. These temperatures are right around or slightly above
normal for early February thanks to weak high pressure in the
midlevels. Those in the far southeast Missouri will see highs today
in the mid-50s while east central Missouri tops out in the high 40s.
Cloud cover is beginning to move in, and overcast skies tonight will
help low stay in the upper 20s to the mid 30s.

The front-page story of the forecast period is the potential for
wintry precipitation tonight into the early morning hours Tuesday. A
low-level trough and a surface low pressure central will join forces
to sweep energy through the Ozarks from northwest to southeast.
There are questions regarding where precipitation will be realized
and exactly what type it will be. Our experimental drizzle index
(based on RAP13 data) tries to break out low freezing drizzle
chances in the Texas/Shannon county area as early as 3 AM, moving
south and east out of the area by 6 AM with accompanying rain to the
southwest along the remainder of the front. This is due to a
combination of high low-level RH, lift, a lack of cloud ice, and
near-freezing surface temperatures. The HREF doesnt seem to be
buying this, keeping freezing rain accumulations east of the CWA
until its 75th percentile. It does however indicate an up to 40%
chance for transient freezing rain in our northern counties (Morgan-
Miller-Maries-Phelps), latching onto the energy from the low-level
through rather than the surface low, which would be driving things
in central MO. It gives this area up to a 30% chance for more than
0.01 of freezing rain.

Individual short-term models largely tell the low-end story.It
appears the NAM and NSSL HRW are skewing the HREF mean higher than
the individual solutions from the HRRR, ARW, and FV3. The GFS/GEFS
also agree that the most likely scenario is little to no
precipitation, with liquid precipitation falling where things manage
to saturate. Reality will come down to where the freezing line lands
in relation to the lift from the front. I dont have much confidence
in the HREF solution; if enough moisture manages to  make it that
far north, I could see very light, short-lived precipitation up
there, but I doubt the moisture and lift will phase sufficiently to
bring meaningful impacts. If precipitation falls, it may be a mix of
snow and flurries and light freezing drizzle.

The official story is PoPs less than 20% for the most part, though
extending up toward 30% in the extreme southeast corner of Oregon
county by 8 AM as the frontal lift is on its way out and starts to
encounter better moisture to the southeast. These 20-30% PoPs cover
the potential for patchy-to-scattered snow flurries and freezing
drizzle, basically all around the northern and eastern border of the
CWA. The midnight forecast package will take a close look at this
setup with the evening model runs, which can hopefully come into
better agreement.

With cooler air behind the front, well be a bit cooler Tuesday with
highs in the low to mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 316 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

With the northerly flow behind the front continuing through
Wednesday, well cool down just a bit back into the upper 30s  for
highs. High pressure then begins to move in, and a warming trend
will take place through the end of the week and the weekend. Friday
will be the warmest day, with some in the south breaking 60 degrees,
about 20 degrees higher than normal. There is little to no
precipitation to speak of through the long term, as is typical with
high pressure.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 1124 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Conditions will begin VFR this period until early Tuesday morning,
when a passing front will bring MVFR and IFR ceilings that may also
produce light drizzle that slightly impedes visibility. Winds will
stay  light (<10 kts) through the period, but gradually shift from
southerly to westerly to northerly by the end of the period as the
front passes through.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Nelson
LONG TERM...Nelson
AVIATION...Nelson